In various scenarios for societal development in 2050, Bulgaria can use green innovations to address several challenges facing the state, society, the economy, and the environment. This is a conclusion from a pilot implementation of the strategic foresight methodology conducted by MOVE.BG at the end of 2024, the summarized results of which we are publishing today in a special brochure titled “Mission Green Innovations: Four Scenarios for Bulgaria” - link here (in ENG). Experts from academia, business, and the civil society sector, as well as representatives of political parties and the financial sector, participated in the pilot implementation of the methodology. The experts created four scenarios for possible societal development by 2050 and identified where, within these scenarios, there is potential for the development of green innovations, so that societal challenges can be addressed through innovation.
Mission Green Innovations: Why Is Strategic Foresight Important?
Strategic foresight is a methodology for integrating future perspectives into long-term policy planning in order to successfully prepare for emerging challenges and opportunities. The methodology does not predict the future but works with alternative scenarios for its development, thereby overcoming the limitations of a linear approach to policy planning (focusing on only one problem and devising measures solely to solve it).
Strategic foresight is used by various states, institutions, non-governmental organizations, and businesses. In 2020, the European Commission established a special mechanism for strategic foresight, which conducts annual analyses of key challenges to the EU’s long-term development. In Bulgaria, this methodology is still not widely known.
Mission Green Innovations: What Happened at the Strategic Foresight Event Organized by MOVE.BG?
MOVE.BG, in partnership with SCION Society, brought together over 20 experts at a special forum titled “Mission Green Innovations: Bulgaria’s Potential for Developing Green Innovations by 2050.” The initiative piloted elements of the strategic foresight methodology. We chose as the focus of the pilot the important but underrepresented topic at the political level in Bulgaria - the creation and implementation of green innovations.
Green innovations bring several benefits for the prosperity of the country and society, for supporting the economy and competitiveness, and for protecting and preserving nature and its resources. At the same time, Bulgaria is lagging behind in the development of green innovations: our country ranks last in the EU Eco-Innovation Index 2024, which measures both the adoption of eco-innovations in business, society, and public administration, as well as their development and support at the scientific, business, and governmental levels. Both in 2014, when the first edition of the index was published, and in 2024, our country continues to hold this position.
The application of the strategic foresight methodology involved several steps. First, the experts brought together by MOVE.BG identified two key trends for the development of Bulgaria, Europe, and the world in 2050: climate change and social cohesion. Based on the possible manifestations of these trends, four scenarios for the year 2050 were developed:
- Scenario A: Mitigated Climate Change and a Balanced, Connected Society
- Scenario B: Severe Climate Change and a Balanced, Connected Society
- Scenario C: Mitigated Climate Change and a Fragmented, Divided Society
- Scenario D: Severe Climate Change and a Fragmented, Divided Society
An expert group was formed to examine each scenario. The groups discussed five key questions: what the respective scenario means for society, the state, the environment, and the economy; and where, under that scenario, the potential for the development of green innovations in Bulgaria lies.
Mission Green Innovations: Where Do the Potentials Lie, according to Experts?
Potential for the development of green innovation in Scenario A: Mitigated Climate Change and a Balanced, Connected Society
- Development of innovations supporting biodiversity restoration
- Development of innovation for water retention in winter and release during the growing season
- Development of innovation for water treatment and protection
- Development of innovative formats of cooperation between citizens to protect natural resources
- Development of a new generation of energy innovations as a result of collaboration between businesses that have embraced helping society as a top priority over competition
Potential for the development of green innovation in Scenario B: Severe Climate Change and a Balanced, Connected Society
- Development of innovative approaches to communicate the need to implement climate policies in all areas
- Development of agricultural innovation to ensure food security, including regenerative agriculture
- Development of innovation for smart cities, decentralised energy systems, and new models to control resource management and consumption
- Development of innovation in lifelong learning to support adaptation to climate change and the smart use of resources
- Development of innovation in health and pharmacy to ensure health care in resource-limited and climate-intense situations
Potential for the development of green innovation in Scenario C: Mitigated Climate Change and a Fragmented, Divided Society
- Development of innovation in agriculture, including the development of regenerative agriculture
- Development of sustainable urban design models for new neighborhoods/villages
- Development of innovations for smart use of resources (water capture) and reducing supply chains in a segregated society
- Development of innovations to create new lines of forwarding in a segregated society - drones, underground vehicles for goods
- Development of innovative models to promote collaboration between communities on environmental issues
Potential for the development of green innovation in Scenario B: Severe Climate Change and a Balanced, Connected Society
- Development of innovations for smart use and reuse of resources, including new and unconventional circularity models
- Development of innovations to decentralize the energy system and seeking new approaches to ensure the sustainability of energy communities
- Development innovations to create local and clean forms of energy production to ensure the security of the district heating supply
- Development of digital innovations to implement more effective models to address climate change impacts
- Development of digital innovations for smart recovery from climate change (infrastructure, water, energy)
Based on the results of its strategic forecasting, MOVE.BG, with the help of experts, developed over 200 recommendations for improving the environment for creating and implementing green innovations in Bulgaria across five key areas related to the green transition and societal development: democracy, education, the economy, municipalities, and finance in the context of green innovation development.
The recommendations will be presented in April.
View the brochure “Mission Green Innovations: Four Scenarios for Bulgaria” here.
Mission Green Innovations
A MOVE.BG initiative in support of green innovators from Bulgaria. At MOVE.BG, we know that Bulgaria has the potential to be among the green and innovative leaders in Europe. That is why it is important to support the creators of innovations that can transform the Bulgarian economy from a resource-intensive model to a value-based one.
Learn about MOVE.BG’s various initiatives in support of Bulgaria’s green and innovative development here.
